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Alas, Jude Bellingham-led Real Madrid are still considered massive favourites by the prediction model, which, based on the 10,000 simulations, thinks Carlo Ancelotti's side have a 76.6% chance of wresting the crown back from Barcelona.
Team rating
end-of-season probabilities
Real Madrid78 pts
84.4
'
Atltico Madrid77 pts
79.3
'
Real Sociedad71 pts
77.1
'
Villarreal64 pts
73.3